You’re not that great. Don’t take it the wrong way, I’m not that great either, but there’s a subtle point here. Overconfidence is a problem we - and the people we seek to serve - all suffer from. The good news is that just knowing it exists can help us deal with it. Organizational Psychologist … Continue reading You’re Not That Great (A Motivational Post)
Tag: probability
There Is No Perfect Answer, There is A Best Option
In math, there’s one right answer. 1 + 1 = 2 and that’s it. We like to think that when we’re making a logical decision, this same rule of “only one right answer” applies. Most of the time, it doesn’t. If only life was as neat as grade school math. Most of the time, there’s … Continue reading There Is No Perfect Answer, There is A Best Option
Diversify Your Skill Stack (Advice From Quincy And Rashida Jones)
Rashida Jones’ father, the legendary Quincy Jones, told her, “Always be good at two things.” Quincy led by example too. He’d do music with artists and then score for films. This way, he explained, there was always work if one category got slow. Rashida told Conan O’Brien it was the best advice he gave her.* … Continue reading Diversify Your Skill Stack (Advice From Quincy And Rashida Jones)
What’s The Margin Of Safety?
In investing, we talk a lot about margin of safety. It usually represents what is left over after we adjust for bad luck. Anywhere we make choices - in business or in life - thinking about “what will I be left with if this doesn’t work out,” in advance is a helpful thought experiment. In … Continue reading What’s The Margin Of Safety?
Before The Trip And Before The Project: Destination Planning And Route Planning
When we are trying to help people reach a goal or meet an objective, it can help to differentiate between destination planning and route planning. Destination planning can be done with a paper map. We are in one place and the destination is in another. Route planning can be done and then modified on our … Continue reading Before The Trip And Before The Project: Destination Planning And Route Planning
Nazi-Fighting Field Mice And Always Having A Margin Of Safety
There are two types of conservative: the kind where you avoid risk, and the kind where you broaden your definition of success. The first is about limiting the potential outcomes to something certain. The second is about opening up to a range of acceptable outcomes, also called having a margin of safety. The distinction matters … Continue reading Nazi-Fighting Field Mice And Always Having A Margin Of Safety
Podcast Of The Week: “Deterministic Thinkers In A Probabilistic World,” Or “When JP Met Rory”
Sometimes you just want to hear two of your favorite people hang out with each other.* James O’Shaughnessy had a nearly two-hour talk with Rory Sutherland on the Infinite Loops Podcast this week. O’Shaughnessy is an OG quant investor/behavioral psychology fanatic/philosopher/et al, and Sutherland is one of the greatest (and most entertaining) marketing minds of … Continue reading Podcast Of The Week: “Deterministic Thinkers In A Probabilistic World,” Or “When JP Met Rory”
Becoming Better Bettors
One area where improvement creates massive leverage is becoming better bettors. Not just by predicting actual outcomes, although that can help too, but getting better at the process of making bets itself. The process of betting is hard. We’re trying to predict the future. We have to imagine a plausible outcome. We have to put … Continue reading Becoming Better Bettors
The Myth Of Good Times And Bad Times
In business, the idea of good times and bad is a myth. There are times that are bad, and there are times to prepare for bad times. It’s not to say we can’t experience good times. We can and should stop to celebrate milestones and achievements. But, it pays to be realistic. Two things happen … Continue reading The Myth Of Good Times And Bad Times
Look! We’re Still Going > See? I Was Right
Everybody wants to know what happens next. What the next move is. What they can do now to say, “See? I was right,” later. Kurt Vonnegut with the spoiler: History is merely a list of surprises. It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again.If it’s going to make history, it has to be … Continue reading Look! We’re Still Going > See? I Was Right