Patrick O’Shaughnessy posed this question, “If you had to ask every investor that you admire most the same single question (and they had to answer truthfully), what would you ask them?” Morgan Housel answered, “How do you measure skill vs. luck on your own success?” Beyond our favorite investors, this is a great question for … Continue reading Separating Skill And Luck
Tag: probability
Learning From The COVID Crisis’ Complexities
Rory Sutherland made this point, “Isn't it interesting that the whole world's scientific elite are trying to solve a problem that, in most cases, your immune system solves within a week?” There are so many interesting variables inside of this, let’s dissect a few we can broadly apply. The scientific elite. The real experts. The … Continue reading Learning From The COVID Crisis’ Complexities
Context And Feedback
“The models were wrong.” “No one saw this coming.” “It’s all so clear now what was happening.” “This person was right, we should have listened to them.” These are the exclamations swirling around all of us right now. They’re a stretch for certainty, confidence, and comfort in a time that lacks all three. The opportunity … Continue reading Context And Feedback
Safety Third
While we’re all quarantined inside, Boyd Varty is living alone in a treehouse for forty days and forty nights in South Africa. He is doing a daily journal in the form of an audio recording that is being shared as a podcast. On day 4 he talked about going for a jog in the bush … Continue reading Safety Third
Which Do We Believe: The Statistics Or The Calculus?
Which do we want to believe - the statistics or the calculus? If we believe the statistics and our idea will probably fail, why even start? If we focus on the calculus, the trajectory and future potential of our idea, we’ll at least try to engineer a solution. Even if the odds are against us. … Continue reading Which Do We Believe: The Statistics Or The Calculus?
Be A Learn-It-All, Not A Know-It-All
A little advice from Reid Hoffman: Be a learn-it-all, not a know-it-all. It pairs well with Mark Twain: It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. The way things are supposed to work, the methods for guaranteed success, the trick to pulling … Continue reading Be A Learn-It-All, Not A Know-It-All
It’s A Fact, It’s Science
“It’s a fact, it’s science.” Not exactly. Science is a process where we test answers to questions. We only reach “fact” status when the answer to a test is “objective and verifiable.” Even here, we’re never quite 100% certain. Anything could be disproven, it just becomes a matter of likelihood or confidence. The most common … Continue reading It’s A Fact, It’s Science
Heads And (Long) Tails: Niches Contain Riches
Ideas, content, clients - all exist across a distribution. Ideas can be bad, good, or revolutionary. Content can be unpopular, popular, or viral. Clients can be unprofitable, profitable, and wildly profitable. The core concept is to visualize a range and look for where things aggregate. In an industrialized world, average wins. The “head” (aka the … Continue reading Heads And (Long) Tails: Niches Contain Riches
De-Bugging The Happiness Formula: Happiness = Reality – Expectations
“A happy client is a good client.” “Expectation setting is the key to success.” These are great anecdotes, but what do they really mean? How do we actually apply them? There’s a saying, “the formula for happiness is reality minus expectations.” The standard takeaway is that with a low enough bar, a lot of reality … Continue reading De-Bugging The Happiness Formula: Happiness = Reality – Expectations
Maximize Strengths, Minimize Weaknesses
Unfortunate Truth: It’s really hard to become great at something we’re inherently bad at. Fortunate Reality: it’s possible to become great at something we’re inherently good at. Fortune-Impeding Fiction: “I don’t have to put as much effort into what I’m good at, so I’ll put most of my effort improving the things I’m bad at.” … Continue reading Maximize Strengths, Minimize Weaknesses