Which Do We Believe: The Statistics Or The Calculus?

Which do we want to believe – the statistics or the calculus?

If we believe the statistics and our idea will probably fail, why even start?

If we focus on the calculus, the trajectory and future potential of our idea, we’ll at least try to engineer a solution. Even if the odds are against us.

When we show up with ideas, others will come with statistics. We’ll face a litany of reasons “it’s a bad idea,” and “this won’t work.”

If we truly have a reason to believe, we should set the statistics aside and focus on the calculus. If the effort feels worth it, we should start drafting a path forward.

If we’re the only ones who believe, we’re the only ones who can engineer the solution. If we’re misunderstood, we’ll also be underestimated. If we’ve been underestimated, then maybe, just maybe, we can wildly succeed.

*statistics versus calculus is a Mark Andreessen idea described by Ben Horowitz in “The Hard Thing About Hard Things.”